graph TD
A[Trip Generation] --> B[Trip Distribution]
B --> C[Mode Choice]
C --> D[Route Assignment]
“The role of data analysis is to make people change their mind, based on the data.” Kruschke (2010)
The role of transport modelling is to make people change their mind, and investment decisions, based on evidence.
“Those among us who are unwilling to expose their ideas to the hazard of refutation do not take part in the scientific game.” Popper (1934)
The more people who can run, modify, and see the outputs of transport models, the larger the impact.
“Propensity to Cycle Tool helped us to assess the potential future demand for travel on these routes” (Leicestery County Council, 2023, one of 90+ local authority network plans using the tool).
2 year contract in the Civil Service from January 2023
My roles:
Source: photo taken May 2023 at the Department for Transport’s Data Science for Transport conference
A transport models from first principles can be expressed in 4 stages, according the classic four-step model:
graph TD
A[Trip Generation] --> B[Trip Distribution]
B --> C[Mode Choice]
C --> D[Route Assignment]
The dependency structure may be more realistic, with trip generation, distribution and mode choice all affected by the network.
graph TD
E[Network] --> D[Route Assignment: s4]
F[Other Factors] --> C
F --> B
C --> D
D --> B
E --> B[Trip Distribution: s2]
E --> C[Mode Choice: s3]
B --> C
B --> A[Trip Generation: s1]
We should not throw the baby out with the bathwater, but reform, rebuild or retrofit transport modelling for the 21st Century.
So let’s see what we can do with the 4-stage model before moving on to more complex models.
Aggregate analysis used to inform DRT zone selection (Mahfouz et al. 2025)
A schematic of a research project involving MATSim Rai et al. (2007)